Last year, however, Congress gave the agency new funding to create a more robust, comprehensive set of data for every corner of the country and to update its estimate no less frequently than once every 10 years. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/23/us/california-drought-rain.html. Meanwhile, evacuations were also underway in nearby Porterville along both banks of the Tule River because of erosion and high water levels, officials said. And a video of the engagementceremony went viral. The answer: Atmospheric rivers. And in the highest elevations, colder temperatures promote the continued accumulation of deep snowpack and rainfall is less likely. The data, from Oregon State Universitys PRISM the districts working-class parents and school workers are on the same side. He joined The Times in 2017 and was part of the team that won the 2021 Pulitzer Prize in public service for coverage of the coronavirus pandemic. Seven western states, including California, depend on the river for water, but those states have struggled to reduce their water use even as the rivers flow has plummeted because of climate change, drought and population growth. FEMAs maps guide decisions by builders, insurers and banks, and determine whether homeowners need to buy flood insurance. As California experiences more severe droughts and heat waves, its occasional wet years are expected to be excessively rainy. Elena Shao is a climate reporting fellow for The New YorkTimes. NOAA is keenly aware of the issue, but until recently did not have the resources to construct forward-looking, nationwide estimates of precipitation that also account for the impacts of climate change. Even with more atmospheric rivers in the immediate forecast, and larger and more frequent ones predicted in the future, California cannot solve its long-term water crisis without major infrastructure investments to capture more storm water, restore flood plains and recycle wastewater. Heavy influxes of rain and snow during the winter can also have destructive repercussions later in the year. California has been in a drought seemingly forever. However, much of the focus Tuesday will be on Southern California. While these findings arent exactly positive, simply having the tools to collect data and examine climate models is incredibly useful and important. Patriots Founded as a labor camp for agricultural workers, the small community of Pajaro has long languished in the shadow of nearby Watsonville. In Harris County, Tex., home to Houston, First Street estimates that 60 percent more rain could now fall during a 1-in-100-year storm compared with what Atlas 14 shows for the area. Here's the thing. This moist air in combination with high winds can cause intense rain and snowfall on land. Chilly water temperatures off the Pacific coast and soggy soils in California may delay the arrival of brutal heat for the West Coast. In a new peer-reviewed model, the group says the U.S. governments current precipitation frequency estimates, considered the authoritative source for planning and infrastructure design nationwide, do not fully capture the frequency and severity of extreme precipitation in a changing climate. But it didnt help at all, Espinoza said. First Streets rain estimates also raise questions about the federal governments guidance on flood risks to homes. Should the law fail, it would be catastrophic. Massive solar development projects in Southern California have strained local water availability, threatening desert ecosystems and angering residents. But such orders wont guarantee Californias future water security. The data is startling, and it should be a wake-up call, said Chad Berginnis, the executive director of the Association of State Floodplain Managers, a nonprofit organization focused on flood risk. The most comprehensive solution to manage all your complex and ever-expanding tax and compliance needs. But research suggests that a warmer climate has supercharged the whiplash between theseextremes. [To] realize what the true risk is today, and also what it will be in the future.. If the preliminary report of 25.91 inches measured at a station at the Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood Airport is verified, it would break the state's 24-hour rain record by 2.63 inches. Why Is It Raining so Much in California? More than 50 million in the southern U.S. under oppressive heat Why there's a new bull market despite recession fears. 'A very significant emergency': California's deadly, record-setting what is causing it to rain so much in California, transport moisture from the tropics to higher latitudes. L.A. should let it be a lake again. If youve been on social media recently, youve likely seen pictures and videos of intense rainfall and flooding on the West Coast. San Bernardino County officials said they were pre-positioning equipment and mobilizing swift-water rescue teams, as well as public works and flood control crews, in anticipation of the latest storm. March 20, 2023 Updated 10:45 PM PT ALLENSWORTH, Calif. A weary, storm-soaked California is bracing for another bout of heavy rain and snow, power Dry Weather and Drought in the Midwest, Middle-June 2023 More records are within reach, though skies appear to be clearing in coming days. Ian James is a reporter who focuses on water in California and the West. Swain described it as an unusually rapidly strengthening low-pressure system, the likes of which is not often seen off the coast of California. But the problem is huge, in the sense that there are trillions upon trillions of dollars of things that are based on horribly out-of-date information at this point., Raymond Zhong is a climate reporter. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. So, will projected increases in precipitation extremes and winter rainfall increase rain-on-snow occurrence and the associated flood risk? Hayley, I took one look outside this weekend and decided to stay in and watch my wife bake bread. Officials are asking the public to remain alert and be ready to leave should another breach occur. California Every year we are spending millions and billions of dollars on infrastructure, and we are doing it only looking to the past for guidance, and not looking into the future, Kunkel said. Not surprisingly, these are also the areas where weve seen the greatest impacts from flooding: levee breaks, mudslides, inundated highways and heavy snow accumulations from the series of atmospheric rivers that began in late December and persisted into mid-January,Rizzardo said. Over and over, scientists have documented a central explanation driving the shift toward more frequent devastating rains. California storms have caused widespread devastation and are expected to continue for at least another week. As climate change fuels more extreme rain events, particularly in places such as the Northeast, the Ohio River Valley and along parts of the Gulf Coast, the old assumptions are no longer sufficient. What Does All This Rain Mean for Californias Drought? But, he said, California has a long way to go to break the record for the wettest year: "The largest water year was 1982-1983which totaled 42.81 inches.". As of March 21, The Guardian reported that there have been 12 atmospheric rivers since December, and sadly, these storms arent done yet more are expected to occur throughout the spring. NOAA is working to develop Atlas 15, which will incorporate historical changes in rainfall intensity as well as estimates based on models of future climate conditions. Luke Money is an assistant editor on the Fast Break Desk, the Los Angeles Times breaking news team. Up to 4 feet of snow is possible at elevations above 6,000 feet, with a significant threat of avalanches. As of June 20th, forecasts do not suggest much rain in most of the Midwest through Sunday, June 25. Parts of Southern California were turned into a winter wonderland over the weekend after a winter storm dumped several feet of snow. Residents of Bridgeport, Pa., assess flooding damage following Hurricane Ida in 2021. it wasn'tthe wettest 22-day period. Just talking with her that first night, everything was so effortless, he said. Many Future Storms May Dump 50% More Rain, Overwhelming City Drains - The New York Times Intensifying Rains Pose Hidden Flood Risks Across the U.S. The threats to American infrastructure from intense rain have been on stark display in recent years. WebCalifornia, California gets 22 inches of rain, on average, per year. Even as the Colorado River basin faces its own drought, and the atmospheric rivers provide no relief, the Colorado River suffers more from overuse than from a lack of precipitation. As of April 2023, it was 21.8%. In Houston, 145,000 properties lie in First Streets 100-year flood zone but not in FEMAs. Contrary to common belief, rainfall itself has limited energy to melt snow. The deluge transformed the creek that runs near her home near Madison, Ind., into a raging river that swept away a calf and hundreds of hay bales, she said. Other places where there are large differences between First Streets rainfall estimates and NOAAs include the Ohio River Basin, northwestern California and parts of the Mountain West. The new rain estimates, issued on Monday by the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research group in New York, carry worrying implications for homeowners, too: They indicate that 12.6 million properties nationwide face significant flood risks despite not being required by the federal government to buy flood insurance. But, they have been badly depleted by decades of heavy pumping, especially in the agriculture-heavy Central Valley. NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. "Downtown San Francisco is our only site that has records that far back.". Kim Schultz still struggles to describe how hard and fast the rain fell in her corner of southern Indiana that afternoon last September. He said he had been using a small pump to try to drain water from the yard. In 2017 he was awarded the NLGJA award for excellence in transgender coverage. The states record-level snowpack could mean more flooding in the spring as the snow melts, especially if much of the soil is already saturated with water and cant absorb much more of it. Professor Keith Musselman, who studies water and climate change at the University of Colorados Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, explained the complex risks rain on snow creates and how they might change in a warming climate. North Jersey was drenched by rain Monday, with some towns getting several inches. Last year, the couple got engaged. However, its slow implementation and lack of quantitative goals threaten to undermine its potential. Endorsement: The outcome of this weeks L.A. City Council District 6 election could shape the city for years to come, Editorial: A shortage of bilingual teachers threatens goal for a multilingual California, Guerrero: Why Wendy Carrillo is a natural alternative to Kevin de Len on L.A.s City Council, Op Comic: Florida man makes campaign promises, Editorial: Turning office buildings into apartments is how California eases the housing crisis. In the last year alone, weve witnessed storms that were made more intense by our changing climate, such as Hurricane Ian. CNN Swaths of California still saturated by ruthless storms will get walloped by another atmospheric river, spawning fears of renewed flooding and forcing On Dec. 14, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California declared a drought emergency for all 19 million people in the region. Close Menu. Swain said one of the biggest threats moving forward wasnt so much another huge flood pulse but, instead, prolonged periods of high flows along rivers as the states near-record snowpack continues to melt through the spring. And, as NOAA scientists described in a recent report prepared in collaboration with university researchers, the agencys estimates assume that the intensity and frequency of extreme rain hasnt increased in recent decades, despite ample evidence to the contrary. Climate change means climate extremes. The First Street data might have the greatest value in the immediate planning environment, said David Conrad, senior water resource policy adviser to the flood plain managers group. That was certainly the case in Central California, where Tulare County residents continued to deal with flood threats from surging rivers and breached levees. California The Tulare and San Joaquin basins are tracking their wettest years in history, with almost half of January remaining. Massive solar development projects in Southern California have strained local water availability, threatening desert ecosystems and angering residents. June 26, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. EDT. I worked with my colleagues Mira Rojanasakul and Nadja Popovich on a set of maps and charts that illustrates just how big of an effect these very wet months have had on the Golden States longer-term drought conditions. The world already has warmed at least 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 Celsius) since preindustrial times. Want to know why heavy rainfall isn't enough to solve California's drought crisis? This has caused numerous problems, from power outages to landslides. What now qualifies as a 1-in-100 year storm in short, an event with a 1 percent chance of happening any given year is already happening more often in some places. SMITH: It should be weaker than what we saw this past week, but we still would advise people prepare for potential power outages and the hazards that I mentioned earlier and, of course, you know, not drive in standing water; learn how to turn on your windshield wipers, and probably avoid mountain passes that are still stuck and snowed out. But in this area and others across the country, such devastating precipitation is becoming more common as the world grows warmer, according to new data released Monday by the nonprofit First Street Foundation. But the agency says its first data for Atlas 15 might be ready only in 2026. As climate change intensifies severe rainstorms, the infrastructure protecting millions of Americans from flooding faces growing risk of failures, according to new calculations of expected precipitation in every county and locality across the contiguous United States. But it has said the work will take years and probably wont be complete until 2027. Updated 6:11 PM EDT, Mon June 26, 2023 Link Copied! Predictions are for no rain in Illinois, with some rain projected California's chances of getting much needed rain are slim | CNN In a future climate, the response of rain-on-snow flood risk is expected to change in complex and often contradictory ways. County officials urged residents particularly those in the mountains and areas prone to flooding to stock up on necessary supplies and limit travel during adverse weather. Downtown Oakland received 18.33 inches, topping the previous high by 8 inches. This time, And that's for a few reasons. While warmer temperatures are expected to increase rainfall intensity, research shows thats not the most important driver of this risk. Many Future Storms May Dump 50% More Rain, Overwhelming City Drains - The New York Times Intensifying Rains Pose Hidden Flood Risks Across the U.S. California uses more water each year most of it for food production than is supplied by renewable sources such as rain and snowfall, even in the wettest of winters like this one. Daniel Trotta is a U.S. National Affairs correspondent, covering water/fire/drought, race, guns, LGBTQ+ issues and breaking news in America. And some people even made snowballs. Montebello tornado: A possible tornado may be responsible for ripping a roof off a building in Montebello, and the National Weather Service is investigating, The Los Angeles Times reports. So at this point, most experts and officials are saying it would still be premature to declare the drought over. Heavy rain to hit Southern California; thousands flee flooding in Heres what experts are predicting for this summers U.S. weather Its just a question of how much worse it gets before things improve in late spring and early summer, eventually.. Keith Musselman, Assistant Professor in Geography, Mountain Hydrology, and Climate Change, University of Colorado Boulder, rain-snow transition zone expanding higher, US Supreme Court backs man who sent female musician flood of unwanted messages. Its latest estimates, covering nearly every part of the country, are contained in a multivolume publication called Atlas 14. Well, all of these issues are actually due to the multiple atmospheric rivers the state has experienced since late December of 2022. Build the strongest argument relying on authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and industry defining technology. This is going to bring a whole litany of concerns that are probably greater than we had initially anticipated a few days ago, he said of the storm. But when you include this winters rain and snow, the picture shifts: The precipitation that California received between December and mid-March has offset much of the shortfall that accumulated over the past three years. [3] [4] The flooding resulted in property damage [5] [6] [7] and at least 22 fatalities. Figure 1. He is the former senior water scientist at NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and a former member of the California Regional Water Boards in Santa Ana and Los Angeles. This is now Canadas worst fire season in modern history as The calculations suggest that one in nine residents of the lower 48 states, largely in populous regions including the Mid-Atlantic and the Texas Gulf Coast, is at significant risk of downpours that deliver at least 50 percent more rain per hour than local pipes, channels and culverts might be designed to drain. Instead, not only does the snow zone elevation vary during an event, but it also varies substantially from one storm to the next. The projected changes are likely to vary by region, season, climate model, emissions scenario and future time horizon. Explainer: Why weeks of rain in California will not end - Reuters A weary, storm-soaked California is bracing for another bout of heavy rain and snow, power outages and potential flooding this week as a cold weather system takes aim at the state. Or will less snow cover and larger soil moisture deficits reduce rain-on-snow flood risk in a warmer climate? When it comes to replenishing those aquifers, the state has had trouble capturing water from downpours and redirecting it to fields and sandy basins where it can seep underground, experts say. At least seven homes in Tulare County have already been destroyed by floodwaters, primarily in Springville, while 62 structures have suffered major damage and 177 minor damage. Elsewhere in the state, residents were similarly girding for more wet weather. Kriston Jae Bethel for The New York Times, federal governments guidance on flood risks. Beyond that, California should supplement the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act in three ways. In the midst of this winters atmospheric rivers, Gov. The rains have helped replenish reservoirs, many of which have quickly returned totheir historical averages, or surpassedthem. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has warned the seven states in the compact - Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming - that they must negotiate a new agreement to reduce consumption 15% to 30% by Jan. 31 or else face mandatory cuts imposed by the federal government. Heard on California has been in a drought seemingly NOAA began publishing Atlas 14 in 2004, which means that any drains, culverts and storm-water basins built since then might potentially have been sized according to standards that no longer reflect Earths present climate. Dead Without Water: Massive Desert Solar Projects Are Sucking OSH EDELSON / AFP. Roughly 20 percent of the country can now expect a 1-in-100-year storm to happen every 25 years, First Street finds. Groundwater didn't really benefit much from these storms, and neither did the Colorado River, which is a huge part of Southern California's water supply. Opinion: Forget all the rain and snow, California is still short of The Tulare County Sheriffs Office on Sunday ordered evacuations in Alpaugh and Allensworth because of a nearby levee breach, with at least one official indicating the breach may have been caused by someone intentionally cutting through an earthen barrier with machinery. Central California, the Southern California coastlinesand the Sierra Nevada regions are 200% ahead of their average precipitation to date, said David Rizzardo,hydrology section manager for the water resources department. A year's worth of California rainfall has gone missing - Los Its shocking that this fundamental information is not well-known today. First, even though storms may temporarily ease the dry conditions, drought is likely to return relatively soon. Despite a deluge that by one estimate has been expected to dump more than 20 trillion gallons (80 trillion liters), the state's major reservoirs remain well below their historic average. When the soil isnt yet saturated, it can dampen or delay a flood response by soaking up rain and melting snow. All rights reserved. The shortfall underscores the severity of the drought. What this means for communities today is that their understanding of risk is often underestimated, the group wrote, and in many locations the infrastructure in place or that is currently being built to protect communities, property and individuals is built to an insufficient standard.. The greatest effects are expected in Southern California. One house was carried from its foundation and destroyed, killing a 61-year-old woman who lived there. Evacuating Tulare: Flooding in Tulare County has forced nearly 100 residents into evacuation shelters, with over 680 structures damaged by flood water and the possibility of more rain, Visalia Times-Delta reports. (First Street plans to publish additional documentation on how it computed its new estimates on July 31.). Basin by basin, the agencies must develop and implement sustainability plans and get them evaluated by the California Department of Water Resources. When you look at how much precipitation California received over the past three years, excluding this winter, youll notice that almost the entire state experienced levels far below whats normal, with normal defined as the average precipitation received between 1991 and 2020. But the state's water infrastructure, mostly built in the 20th Century when the population was barely half of today's 40 million, is ill-equipped for the new situation. The most lucrative majors? Families are still in a COVID-19 mindset. Tulare County residents are encouraged to sign up for emergency notifications at AlertTC.com. It was written by: Keith Musselman, University of Colorado Boulder. an estimated 142 million acre-feet has been depleted. Despite historic amounts of rain and snow, California is still in a drought emergency 2023 5:04 AM ET. Though recent storms have cut Californias drought by half, record snowpack will increase the threat of spring flooding, forecasters say. He earned his bachelors degree in journalism from the University of Arizona. People in the rural California community of Allensworth have been fighting floodwaters by building berms, and are bracing for the next storm. We were seeing snow at elevations as low as 1,500 or even a thousand feet, which is exceptionally low. What Does All This Rain Mean for Californias Drought? - The New The result, according to First Street, is that NOAA is substantially underestimating the risk of severe rain in some of the nations largest cities: Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington among them. HAYLEY SMITH: So this was a low-pressure system that started in the Gulf of Alaska and kind of slowly carved a path down through California. The main event starts to approach tonight, and it really hits us hard tomorrow thats when were going to get the heaviest rain, the strongest winds and the heaviest snow in the mountains, Sweet said. While some jurisdictions might be able to pay to undertake more elaborate studies of potential risks in a hotter future, many local officials and planners must rely primarily on NOAAs existing precipitation frequency estimates when deciding how to build a new project. She added that she had been asking local emergency workers for help. The downside of all that is that hundreds of thousands of people are still without power. In fact, the states groundwater deficit is now so large that it will never be fully replenished. Why In San Clemente, several buildings were evacuated last week after a major landslide and officials warned additional rain could exacerbate the danger. First Street, which has previously examined how climate change is deepening risks posed by floods, wildfires, heat and hurricane wind strength, created its latest analysis using data from nearly 800 federal weather stations. NOAA and its predecessor agencies have been publishing data on expected rain and snow for decades. In 2014, California finally passed the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, or SGMA, its first-ever regulation governing groundwater pumping.

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